Nine Fundamental Problems with George W Bush’s Decision Making ProcessPage One
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    Einstein quoted a scientist friend to the effect that all politicians must be psychopaths  because they make such momentous decisions based on so little  knowledge.... On the other hand, when asked by a elementary student if it was hard to make decisions as president, W replied:  "Not really.  If you know what you believe, decisions come pretty easily.... I know who I am.  I know what I believe in, and I know where I want to lead the country.  And most decisions come pretty easily to me, to be frank."
In George W Bush ("Son Bush") we are faced with a president who is decent and means well and, despite his public gaffes and awkward speech, has a decent native intellect.  However, his lack of substantive knowledge on so many issues and his preference for reading people rather than briefing books means he makes decisions based more on beliefs not facts, on instinct not reasoning, on political ideology and  faith, not discussion and debate -- but the biggest problem is that the certainty that comes from ignoring messy facts allows him to take far larger risks than any modern president, and then prevents him from recognizing mistakes and changing course.

    Good decisions are based on gathering all the facts and carefully weighing both sides of a issue.  Nixon established the Office of Management and Budget to be the “honest broker” and help him make decisions in best interest of country and he frequently sought and received 50 page “Brandeis briefs,” so called because they tried to fairly set out each side of an issue.  Other presidents have taken different courses including extended meetings to allow a full discussion of an issue, and/or a staff or outside contacts who would bring them opposing views and facts... or they at least read newspapers and watched the news.  Son Bush though has taken a very different path and eight major problems are apparent.

I.  First, W lacked a body of knowledge gained over years of study, reading and briefings, or from experience gained over time in dealing with very complex, high level issues. 
    George W. Bush came to the presidency with the thinnest resume of any president in this century. He was admittedly adrift and getting into trouble until he married Laura and ran for Congress in 1977.  However, he continued to have problems until he stopped drinking in 1987 at the age of 40 when his life started an upward course as he finally found success with the Texas Rangers and then as Governor of Texas.  Texas government reflects Texans’ deep distrust of government since the Legislature only meets for 140 days every other year, and the Governor’s office has very limited powers, duties and staff.  Thus even though Son Bush was Governor for 6 years, he had limited governing experience.  And though he gained much practical knowledge from helping his father’s many campaigns and seeing him work as Vice President and then as President, it was more about campaigning than governing.
    As Richard Perle said after briefing Son Bush as a candidate, he didn’t know much, but he knew he didn’t know much! 
  "At one point the Crown Prince handed Bush photographs of dead Palestine children.  Do you think this it’s right? He asked.  Bush appeared surprised by the photographs and his eyes seemed to well up.  One person familiar with the conversation summarized Bush’s comments: 'I want peace.  I don’t want to see any people killed on both sides.  I think God loves me.  I think God loves the Palestines.  I think God loves the Israelis.  We cannot allow this to continue....' Before beginning to eat lunch, Bush bowed his head and reached for Saud’s hand (Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Foreign Minister.)  'Let us pray,' he said.  A look of panic came over the Crown Prince (Abdullah) who was unfamiliar with the Christian custom of saying grace before meals.  'What is he doing?' he whispered to an aid sitting nearby.  'What should I do?'  Powell also looked stricken, as if he couldn’t believe what Bush was saying in front of Muslim guests.  Abdullah later told others that he had been impressed with the seriousness of Bush’s religious convictions."   New Yorker 3/24/03.

II.  Second, he has limited opportunities to gain substantive information, and what he gets is not balanced, nor does it go much beyond the most basic condensed and basic issues.
    Since W has little patience for long meetings or briefing books, most policy papers are limited to 3 pages or less, meetings are often scheduled at 5 minute intervals, and every effort is made to limit 60-90 minute policy briefing to no more than twice a week.  As a result he has little opportunity to gain any significant amount of knowledge, or even listen to any full discussions of the issues. 

    This also means he relies not only on his staff’s knowledge, but also their ability – or willingness – to present all relevant facts in a balanced way.  And since his staff usually knows what he wants to do, the problem and danger is that they consciously or unconsciously bring him facts and arguments to support his preferred positions or biases.  “One seldom heard an unexpected thought in the Bush White House.”  Former speech writer David Frum
     He is also shielded from opposing arguments and conflicting facts since he claims he doesn’t read newspapers or watch the news.  “I glance at the headlines just to kind of get a flavor for what’s moving.  I rarely read the stories, and get briefed by people who probably read the news themselves.” GW Bush   “I’m more interested in news than opinions, and the best way to get the news is from objective sources.  And the most objective sources I have are people on my staff who tell me what’s happening in the world.”  GW Bush to Britt Hume [However, since other accounts have GW reading newspapers every morning, part of these comments are just Bush lowering expectations.]
     This also means that complex issues must be condensed into broad and uncomplicated terms. 
    And finally it also means he can and does make decisions very quickly and never look back.  “Impulsive behavior is often mistaken for decisiveness but in reality the quick decision is often made because the individual is too impatient to sustain his attention long enough to read all the information, or too uncomfortable at the prospect of complex thought to weigh things sufficiently.”  J. Frank

III.  Third:  This lack of knowledge and expertise on many topics means W is reluctant to ask any questions that might expose his lack of knowledge of substantive facts.  While his most trusted inner circle of advisors say W asks a "flood" of questions, almost everyone else notes how rarely he asks any questions in meetings and briefings, i.e. like his back row seat at Harvard Business School classes, he most often remains silent throughout a briefing, nodding occasionally, and offering some generic "cheerleading" comments in relief at the close -- and he only seems to come alive when interacting personally outside of the policy and issue agenda.  In his first months in office he demanded to know who everyone was in any meeting and why they were there in order to calculate their "loyalty" and thus how open he would be, and over time most meetings with W became very carefully scripted, and for show, rather than as a way to gain substantive learning or debate and discuss important issues.  (Interestingly, after the first few months of W's presidency, Cheney also stopped talking in meetings he attended with W, and gave his counsel behind closed doors, perhaps in part because he doesn't want to show up W with his superior knowledge.)  And surely one reason loyalty is so prized in the Bush White House over all other traits, is because W doesn't want his lack of knowledge to be exposed and exploited by his opponents.  Unfortunately of course this lack of give and take not only cuts off a valuable avenue for learning opposing facts and arguments -- which is the key to discovering the true facts which are the basis of all good decisions -- but it also reinforces his isolation and reliance on a small core group of insiders.  "For the president... to be acutely aware of his weaknesses -- and to have to worry about revealing uncertainty or need or confusion, even to senior officials-  must have presented an untenable bind.... According to Christopher DeMuth, president of the American Enterprise Institute the circle around Bush is the tightest around any president in the modern era, 'it's both exclusive and exclusionary. It's a too tightly managed decision-making process.  When they make decisions, a very small number of people are in the room, and it has a certain effect of constricting the range of alternatives being offered.'"  Ron Suskin, NYT Magazine, 10/17/04

 

IV.  Fourth, but more, W believes his firmly held principals and ability to "read" are more important than facts.  As W said as president-elect, “I know what I believe but I need someone to show me where Kosovo is.”

“In briefings I’m watching his body language very carefully, the eyes, the demeanor.  It was more important than some of the substance.”  Son Bush on watching Tommy Franks   W's belief that a president should only set broad policies and not get bogged down in details means decisions can be made without examining all aspects of an issue -- like what would likely happen after a war in Iraq. 

“The singular value of the presidential news conference, as it has evolved over years, is the insight it offers into the workings of the mind of the chief executive....  In the session President Bush held with reporters last week, we learned something both compelling and disturbing about his mental process....  The lesson we could learn about Bush is the power – and the danger – that derive from his capacity to take even the most weighty presidential decisions and refine them down to the simplest terms...  Bush is described by everyone who deals with him as being completely convinced of the rightness of his position.... What the conference revealed was his extraordinary capacity to reject any efforts to put this matter in any broader context [and] his ability to simplify what otherwise would be a wrenching decision.”  David Broder

 

V.  Fifth, this lack of knowledge -- and lack of interest in the details -- also means the power to formulate and implement policy is relegated -- if not outright delegated -- to others, which means Cheney and Rumsfeld and many others at all levels of the Administration have played critical roles in formulating and implementing policy.  "Surround a president like that with one of the most experience-heavy teams of any recent administration, and you have senior officials both formulating and, in some cases, conducting U.S. policy."  Paul O'Neill

And this lack of knowledge -- or interest in the details -- means others can formulate and implement policy and make even significant changes with little oversight or restraint -- and certainly that Cheney and Rumsfeld could do pretty much whatever they wanted.  But more, since so many of those with power in W's administration are former lobbyists, they have the insider knowledge and expertise to implement their specific business-friendly agendas.

 

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