The Elect Hobie Webpage
 "Semi-Blog" on the 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
August 30 to November 1, 2004 (Last entry First)

Last minute thoughts:  *Perhaps the biggest problem is the United States is no longer respected in the world:  a friend who just returned from 3 weeks overseas said they came to hide their American passports until the last minute when going through customs, and that they had been accosted on streets and taxis for being an American.
    *This president Bush may believe the United States has all the answers, unlimited resources, and can win the war on terror by ourselves, but few thinking others do.  Indeed what happened in Afghanistan and Kosovo and Bosnia shows what does work, i.e. the value of having a broad coalition (French troops are still helping in Afghanistan) and that a large number of troops on the ground not only protect the citizens but the troops as well.  And the bottom line is Bush didn’t follow these successes because he simply couldn't convince the world that invading Iraq on his time frame and with his plans was the right thing to do -- and he not only believed Rumsfeld's war-on-the-cheap scenario, he fired Generals for saying otherwise.  The ultimate bottom line is there are always more right things to do than are smart to do, and thus a president must chose the smartest things to do with our limited resources. 

    *The NRA
boasted that if this Bush was elected they would "work out of the White House," and unfortunately that boast has proved to be true.  Not only has this administration allowed the assault weapon ban to expire, but it overturned the "collective" interpretation of the Second Amendment held by every other administration for at least the last 50 years, to adopt an "individual" interpretation that holds each individual has the right to bears arms, and the KEY POINT is by ignoring the militia clause -- to individually use those arms against our own government when they alone determine that it has turned tyrannical.  In short this is the "Timothy McVeigh interpretation" of the Second Amendment.   
    *And four points for the many who dislike this Bush but have serious doubts about Kerry:  First, Karl Rove
=
s smear machine has been as effective against Kerry as it was against John McCain, Max Cleland, and others. As one exasperated commentator noted, if Kerry had suffered a hangnail in Vietnam it would be more than this Bush suffered while serving in the Texas National Guard, at least until he refused to take a medical exam that included a drug test and thus was grounded. The Purple Heart Band-Aids worn by so many at the Republican Convention were also misleading because Kerry=s medical records show he still has bullet and flack fragments close to his femur bone.  And speaking out against the Vietnam war when many others including Walter Cronkite were doing so, and when it was clear the war was both wrong and un-winnable, was an act of courage most of us that lived through that time, to our shame, did not make.  But worse is the premise that anyone with combat experience won=t make a good a president because they won=t be as willing to commit our troops to war -- like Eisenhower and Kennedy -- and thus people without such experience like Cheney, Rumsfeld, and this Bush are better able to make these decisions.  Give me a break!
   
Second, as a senator from Massachusetts Kerry represented his constituents and thus has a "liberal" record just as Dick Cheney had a very "conservative" record as a Senator from Wyoming.
    Third, anyone who has cast over 6,000 votes in the Senate is an easy target for mis-characterizations, and again making his experience in the Senate to be a detriment rather than an asset is also Orwellian, especially since for most of that same time Bush was going from one failed business to another, and indeed had but 6 years experience as governor of a state where the legislature only meets every other year, and then for only 140 days!  
    And fourth, and most importantly, the Republicans will retain control of both the House and Senate and history clearly shows that record spending and record deficits result when one party controls both the presidency and the legislature, and no matter which party.

    And finally, many fellow Republicans, including some influential ones and those who have a Bush-Cheney sign in their yard, say that in the privacy of the voting booth they will either not vote for Bush, or will vote for Kerry!  Indeed if this Bush president is re-elected, and he makes any more mistakes like Iraq, the Republican Party as we know it will cease to exist.

    What we all do know is after the election we will still all be friends and neighbors and Americans. But we all should also recognize that our system of government needs some systemic changes including (1) something like a question hour that forces our officials to publicly defend their decisions, (2) undo the gerrymandering that has allowed 98% of the House seats to be totally safe, and which forces Representatives to court the most extreme sides of their respective parties, and (3) force truth in political advertising.  Why do we have laws against false advertising for toothpaste but not for political candidates?  Fooling the public to get their vote goes against the very foundations of our democracy, and indeed is nothing but political terrorism. 

October 30, 2004

This is about it.  Being at ground zero in Ohio, we have had 5-10 pieces of political mail and 3-10 political calls a day, and most from the Republicans -- and most attacking and distorting Kerry.  It's suppose to rain Tuesday which traditionally would favor Republicans who are not as easily deterred by rain or long lines, but this year feels very, very different from the yard signs, to the number of people volunteering -- and as a long time Republican, I have been struck by the complete lack of enthusiasm for Son Bush by so many other Republicans, and that may well turn out to be the surprise of the election... and the foreshadowing of the demise of the Republican party as we have known it -- with the most interesting post-election question being where these disenchanted and disenfranchised Republican voters will land in the future.

 


October 29, 2004

Kerry seems to be both jumping around with new issues each day and keeping old campaign lines when instead he should attack Bush on Bush's supposed strength:  "keeping us safer" by noting that the biggest weapon in the war on terrorism is intelligence, and we need allies because that certainly isn't our strong  suit -- and by noting the enormous differences in the "coalition" in Iraq vs Afghanistan and the first Gulf war -- and even Kosovo and Bosnia... especially since both Bush and Cheney still maintain that their coalition is as big as the first Gulf war (and note that this Bush's Iraq coalition is shrinking!)  A simple message that makes the point that this Bush's Iraq war is out of step!  Also Kerry isn't reaching out to thinking Republicans as Bush is asking Democrats for their vote...  and there are A LOT of disenchanted Republicans.. and besides reaching out to Republicans seems like a "uniter!"  And finally if anyone has a record to run from it is Bush not Kerry!!!

 

October 22, 2004

”One test of a leader is to convince your allies what’s right and what’s wrong.  And that’s what a leader does.  A leader builds up alliances.”  GW Bush on ABC’s This Week, January 2000.  So Son Bush has failed his own test of a leader! 

 

October 21, 2004

Rush Limbaugh provides one of the best measures of how Son Bush is doing, i.e.  the more he rants, the worse Bush is doing.  For example, after Bush’s stunning loss to McCain in New Hampshire, South Carolina became the do-or-fold state for Bush and Rush rose (or more accurately, sunk) to the challenge with some of the most amazing and vitriolic radio programs ever in the days before the South Carolina primary; and on the day of the 2000 election Rush became increasingly upset as the exit polling showed Son Bush in a dead heat or even losing to Gore; and then today Rush got so wound up in a tirade he called Kerry "a gigolo," claimed Kerry wouldn’t commit troops "unless they were wearing a blue U.N. helmet," and concluded no real American could ever even consider voting for Kerry -- and then after the break, Rush, still a bit out of breath, said he got "a standing O" from his staff. Kerry must be ahead!

October 12, 2004
Bush keeps saying that "the world is safer with Saddam in prison," and "it was the right thing to do."  The first statement is true enough, the second is right if phrased "it was a right thing to do."  But both miss the real question, which is whether it was the best thing to do given our limited resources?  Indeed that should be the first question asked for every decision. 

 

October 11, 2004

Debate Two.  Bush’s famed charisma seems to work best with crowds of true believers and didn’t seem to work on the debate audience, and Kerry again scored points by not being the demon portrayed in the ads.  But both candidates seemed evasive by relying too much on sound bites rather than answering the question posed.  And when Bush says Kerry voted against the $87 billion appropriation for political reasons and if he can’t stand up to Howard Dean how can he stand up to terrorists, why not say this administration has been the most political in memory -- painting anyone who doesn’t agree unpatriotic – even Republicans, and Bush has changed positions time and time again:  first against a Department of Homeland Security, then for it, against an investigation of 9-11, and then for it, against federal airport inspectors, and then for them, first against steel imports and then for them, first for expanding Americorp then not funding any expansion -- and today it was reported that US military operations against insurgent strongholds in Iraq will be put off until after the US elections because they could well involve heavy US military casualties... and in truth the rush to war in Iraq was to accommodate the US political cycle, i.e. it had to start when it did in order to have the “Mission Accomplished” before the US election!  And when Karl Rove brags that he sits between Bush’s National Security Advisor and his Domestic Advisor at the daily White House briefings, politics is definitely at the center of the table every day!  What principles beyond getting re-elected are involved here? And when he taunts Kerry saying "you can run, but you can’t hide" -- how about his running from one rationale for the war on Iraq to another... and then running from the truth when the record is clear.
    And when Bush asks "what other countries will help when you say it is the wrong war in the wrong place" just say (1) it is in everyone’s interests that Iraq be stabilized; (2) that while he really believes it is possible and while there is no guarantee Kerry can bring more people to the table, it is an absolute certainty that Bush hasn’t and can’t.
    And for mistakes, why doesn’t Kerry distinguish himself from Bush who said “history may show” that he’s made “some mistakes in tactics,” but in the big decisions he’s always right, and say he (Kerry) won’t wait for history’s judgment, but rather when a plan isn’t working he’ll change it, and anyone who has made 2,000 votes has made mistakes,. and a more than three..  and have a few examples where he made a mistake, admitted it, and tried to make amends. 
    Oh, so much material to work with and so little time....     

                    

October 6, 2004

The real scandal in the tax area is (1) that payroll taxes are not included in tax burden data, and (2) rather than focusing on the  top 10% of taxpayers, or even the top 0.1% of taxpayers, focus on the top 0.01% of taxpayers who have average income of well over $100 million a year!  Not only is this type of wealth unprecedented, the ability to pay has a whole different meaning as applied to these people, and lowering their rates and eliminating the estate tax will only help create a plutocracy.
“Republicans have conned the nation's heartland into trading its economic interests for the hokum of the cultural wars.  The result has been a kind of mass insanity where working folk bash the government programs that help them while demanding tax cuts for their bosses.” F. Harrop
Bush is protecting his daughters future by increasing their trust funds and eliminating the estate tax while most of the rest of us worried about our children being able to find good jobs and not being saddled by an enormous national debt. 

 

October 5, 2004

Tuesday's VP Debate.  Consistency? Find something else to say than “we've always been consistent.” Everyone changes their position including Bush administration; the more important question is why Bush hasn't changed his wrong positions sooner.  El Salvador isn't Iraq in many respects including time, location, history, area and population!  Freedom and democracy are important principles worth fighting to save -- and to give -- but the bottom line question should always be “is this the best use of our limited resources as we face new and potentially catastrophic dangers.
October Surprise?  Some claim we know where Osama bin Laden is within a zip code, and although he presumably is in a cave, using sophisticated underground oil exploration imaging technologies and sensitive infrared detection devices that can spot living things from afar, we should know where he is within a few thousand feet -- so the chance he will be captured or killed before the election is real... and if we don’t get him we should have months and months ago. However, of course, the wisest thing would be to watch Osama for as long as possible after he is found in order to trace his terrorists network rather than maximize political gain.
    But other October surprises could come from insiders, i.e. just as Paul O’Neill,  Richard Clarke, David Frum, and now even Paul Bremer have come forward with revelations as acts of conscious, if Kerry doesn’t pull ahead soon, so too others in the administration may feel compelled to come forward.  There’s a reason this president Bush wants to know every person who attends a meeting with him, and why they must be there... think about it! 

October 4, 2004

    Debate One, again!  Well, Kerry “won” -- but then he should have won because Bush had the impossible job of justifying the indefensible: his invasion of Iraq without an imminent threat or adequate plan for the post-war nation building.
    One observer said Bush seemed to go down hill after Kerry raised the fact that his father’s book gave numerous reasons not to invade Iraq... and most of those reasons have proved to be valid. Our recent web pages provide interesting and significant information on the Bush Father-Son relationship, and indeed foreshadow, if not predict, that the reference to his father might upset W since while to some significant extent he invaded Iraq to correct his father’s “cut and run” mistake in 1991, he instead once again proved that "father knew best" and the son was wrong... and so Son Bush grimaced to control his emotions and temper.
    But there is another aspect few have mentioned: Bush has a very short attention span: he doesn’t like, and therefore his schedule doesn’t include, long presentations or long briefing papers... indeed it is reported briefing papers are usually condensed to no more than 3 pages with key passages often highlighted, and that every effort is made to limit “long” 60-90 minute policy briefings to no more than twice a week -- and thus it isn’t surprising that he visibly tired during the course of the 90 minute debate, especially when faced with questions and facts even his advisors rarely raise. This is not to denigrate Bush’s intelligence or intentions, but, simply put, and as Iraq proved, relying on “instinct” rather than a strong background in the facts and/or a full airing of opposing views rarely results in the “best” decisions. 
    And finally the debate also demonstrated Bush’s strength: staying on message no matter what, so even though he seemed to robotically repeat key phrases over and over, everyone now knows that  Iraq is “hard work.”  


October 2, 2004

   Debate One! Kerry should avoid personalizing the issues, i.e. while it feels good -- and is accurate –  to say this president has made grievous errors of judgment, it sounds far better -- especially to uncommitted voters -- to criticize the positions as wrong rather than to criticize the person as wrong.  Indeed one of the better parts of the debate was when both candidates seemed somewhat surprised to say nice things about each other's families.
    During the debate Kerry had Bush on the ropes when Bush was trying to justify invading Iraq and said we had been attacked, and Kerry pointed out that Saddam had not attacked us, forcing Bush to reply that he knew Osama attacked us -- but then instead of using his follow-up time to drive home the point, Kerry muddled off into a campaign sound-bite.  The second substantive point Kerry made was that being certain isn’t a virtue if the certainty is in a position that is wrong. This is particularly true and important since each death in Iraq makes the stakes higher, i.e. forces us to insist on a better and more “honorable” outcome -- and since many presidents who made a mistake, like Woodrow Wilson with the League of Nations and LBJ in Vietnam, have dug in on their same “right” path rather than find a way to compromise or correct their path.
    Certainly there has to be a better come-back to Bush’s questioning Kerry on how he could gain the support of other countries if he derides the Iraq invasion as the wrong war, at the wrong time.  And perhaps that answer simply is that Bush stands no chance of getting others to join while Kerry with a fresh start might. 
    And finally, another telling point Kerry could have made was when Bush said he knows Iraq is “hard work” because he “sees the same television images”  Kerry could have said he knows it is more than "hard work," it is heartbreaking work and he doesn't need to see television images because he’s been there. 
    And this raises the interesting question if it is better to have a Commander in Chief who has seen combat.  It seems obvious that those who have seen combat are more careful about committing troops than those who haven’t, and that it also affects the way they wage war once they do so.  For example, it can be argued that both Eisenhower during the Suez conflict and Kennedy during the Cuban missile crises, were reluctant to get engaged in situations that could lead to war, and that once a war was inevitable, Father Bush (and Colin Powell) used overwhelming forces to assure the outcome and thus minimize the losses.      


September 15th

     Two more pieces of advice for Candidate Kerry: First, always, always draw the distinction between Iraq and  Afghanistan not only because endorsing the Afghanistan war reminds people that Kerry would have done the same thing, but also because just saying W stands for "wrong, wrong, wrong" appears strident -- and more importantly  acknowledging what W did right gives credibility and power to the criticism of what he has done wrong,  i.e. Afghanistan was swift, the controlling facts (culpability of bin Laden and the sanctuary provided by the Taliban) were certain, and it was supported by a large international coalition and the greater international community.  Iraq on the other hand while also swift, was based on "intelligence" which was uniformity wrong, the international coalition was weak, and the international community opposed.  And while in both cases the post-war efforts have been totally inadequate and counter-productive, they have been better in Afghanistan in part because our mission there was clearer and had legitimacy and international support.  

    And second, John McCain’s Straight Talk campaign was like "lighting in a bottle" because he in fact offered some straight talk... Kerry should do the same by focusing on Common Sense,  i.e. Common sense says Osama bin Laden was more of a threat than Saddam Hussein. Common sense says Iran and North Korea were a bigger threat than Iraq.  Common sense says it is better to re-build the electric grid in the U.S. than in Iraq.  Common sense says a president should ask his senior advisors not just how to invade Iraq, but if we should do so in the first place.    Common sense says we can’t win the war on terror by ourselves.  Common sense says we can’t win a war on terror if we create more terrorists than we stop.  Common sense says we can’t afford the war on terror by ourselves.  Common sense says our strongest asset isn’t our military but our economy. Common sense says not every country is ready for democracy. Common sense says a $1.3 trillion tax cut isn’t “itty-bitty.”  Common sense says payroll taxes are taxes and should be counted when comparing tax burdens. Common sense says businesses should be rewarded for providing jobs in America, not for moving jobs to other countries.  Common Sense says allowing the sale of AK-7's won’t make us safer.  Common sense says the NRA helps criminals and terrorist more than hunters when it supports the manufacture and sale assault weapons and large magazine clips.  Common sense says the NRA isn’t interested in safety when it opposes trigger locks, opposes keeping records of gun sales, and opposes closing gun show loopholes.  Common sense says since we can’t do everything that is “right” to do, we should focus on what’s smart and right to do. Common sense says allowing small businesses to band together to purchase health care will not solve the health care problems, especially when family health care coverage now averages over $10,000 a year!  Common sense says the founding fathers never envisioned a House made up gerrymandered safe districts. Common sense says a campaign that costs over $1 billion will reward the 4% who give over the 96% who don’t.  Common sense says you have to recognize that there is a problem before you can fix it.  Common sense says you don’t know what you’re doing if you declare “Mission Accomplished” before the mission is accomplished...  And you really don’t know what you’re doing if you declare “Mission Accomplished” when the hardest work is yet to come.   Common sense says it’s stupid to taunt your enemies with comments like “bring ‘em on.” Common sense says deficits matter. Common sense says reducing our dependence on oil will do more to increase our short and long term safety than any military actions.  Common sense says many businesses profit from military expenditures and some profit greatly.  Common sense says all jobs are not equal, and that a new job in the hospitality industry won’t pay as much as a lost manufacturing job.  Common sense says we don’t have all the right  answers... even if we are Americans.

  September 9th

    What an interesting change of terminology for W and his administration, i.e. while earlier they said the main reason we were in Iraq was to spread democracy (i.e. government exercised by the people), now they say we are in Iraq to spread liberty.  The difference: even the neocons now realize that not only will it likely take a long, long time for democracy to take hold in Iraq, we may not like the peoples' choice, thus the use of “liberty,” a far more amorphous word that could mean anything from "freedom from confinement, servitude or forced labor," to "freedom from undue governmental control," -- in short a dumbing down of even this latest rationale for the war.  

              

September 7, 2004

     Karl Rove has to be laughing:  if he was managing Kerry rather than W, Kerry would be up by  15 points and the election all but over -- so Kerry should pick some new advisors, and quickly -- and why not us!
     In any event, while John McCain (based on his experience campaigning against W) advised Kerry against making his Viet Nam experience a central theme of his campaign, most Democrats viewed it as an effective counterpoint to W’s war-time-president persona, and thus an advantage over the other primary candidates. But highlighting his military service, and especially responding to the Swift Boat attacks, has hurt Kerry in at least five ways:
     First, Bill Clinton (and others) have advised Kerry to fight back when attacked because Clinton’s campaign did such a good job of counter-attacking in 1992. But the allegations against Clinton were mostly personal, not professional, and as Ken Starr and his cohorts found out to their chagrin –  and W and Rush Limbaugh have found out to their delight – the American people have a remarkable tolerance for sexual, drug, and other human failings and misdeeds. 
     Second, only the slightest doubt is needed to bring truthfulness into question.  Amazingly (or not!), similar questions were raised about G. H. W. Bush’s record in WWII, i.e. despite being commissioned as the Navy’s youngest pilot, and despite undertaking 58 combat missions, and despite being shot down twice, during his political campaigns a fellow pilot accused him of strafing Japanese fishermen and several eyewitnesses questioned if his plane was really on fire when he ditched it the last time, resulting in the deaths of his two crew members.  Simply put, combat memories, like the memories of crime victims and witnesses, are notoriously unreliable, and thus details can be easily manipulated in a person’s mind to reflect their biases... and even appear credible.
     Third, Kerry’s war record didn’t end when he left Viet Nam but continued as a prominent and effective anti-war spokesman that was seen by many who served – and many didn’t – as heinous and treasonous as “Hanoi-Jane Fonda.”  In retrospect, it is entirely possible that Kerry's anti-war actions saved lives by speeding the end of an un-winnable war... but the anti-anti-war reaction was fueled by far more than the war because it also mirrored a seismic cultural division between the clean and crew-cut soldiers and the dirty, long-haired hippies. And indeed this is one reason Kerry’s opposition was so effective:  he didn’t fit with the anti-war crowd.  Moreover that cultural division continues to drive today's cultural wars with similar wedge issues of  gays, abortion, sex, etc.
     Fourth, a former frat president like Bush will beat Kerry and most other candidates in “likeability,” and far more tried to avoid the draft (and going to Viet Nam) than volunteered, and once in Viet Nam far more didn’t win as many medals.  Simply put, would you feel more comfortable having a beer with a Purple Heart winner who enlisted and then volunteered for dangerous combat duty, or a fellow dodger like Bill Clinton and George W. Bush?  Moreover, every time W says he finds Kerry’s service "admirable," W comes across as reasonable and gracious while Kerry seems more strident and a whiner. 
     And fifth, Kerry loses every minute he doesn’t speak of the real issues, Iraq, deficits, jobs, health care. 
    What to do?  First, have others fight back, and more, McCain’s criticisms of the attacks on Kerry carry far more weight than Kerry’s. Second, remind the voters that GW and most all other politicians are exceptionally thankful that what they said in 1968 and the following years wasn’t recorded. Third, an important difference is that unlike W’s incomplete service in the Texas National Guard that carried no chance of deployment to Viet Nam, almost all who serve in today's National Guard will see combat, and for extended terms of duty.  And finally, demeaning Kerry's service not only hurts all who have served, are serving, and will be serving, it also demeans the military since since the anti-Kerry group is asking us to believe that medals are routinely awarded for less than meritorious acts?

 

September 4, 2004

     The misrepresentations in Zell Miller’s and Dick Cheney’s speeches at the Convention were so great as to leave most commentators breathless... with Wolf Blitzer and his panel making Zell Miller bluster when they pointed out that he and Cheney and other Republicans had fought to kill many of the same military programs Zell said would leave the US "fighting with spitballs." Another commentator said it was the most mean-spirited speech he had heard in 20 conventions, and even a conservative commentator admitted while they were “guilty pleasures,” both speeches were "over- the-top" with representations he’d never make.  But perhaps the most dangerous charge was that Kerry would not commit military forces unless approved by the UN:  this pure unadulterated bull is big-time code for the super-patriot base that believes they must be heavily armed to defend themselves against a rogue US government which allows guns to be regulated and its troops to serve under a UN command. Simply put, while these statements seem innocuous to ordinary citizens, similar statements by the NRA and even mainstream political operatives in prior campaigns that were also meant to energize this base, gave comfort and legitimacy to Timothy McVeigh’s paranoia! Unfortunately all terrorists aren't foreigners.


September 2, 2004

     Obviously, if you can’t run on your record, your only option is to tear-down your opponent -- which surely is GW and Rove’s forte anyway.  Rush Limbaugh and others say Kerry should stop whining because "this is how the game is played in the Big Leagues." Big League what???  Knowingly mis-stating key facts is wrong -- and “Bush League” -- because, simply put, lies don’t work in the long run.... just remember Ken Lay and Dennis Kozlowski and Arthur Andersen thought creative accounting and tax schemes were "Big League" too.  And while Rove and W claim not to be  concerned about history’s judgment because, as W said, “we’ll all be dead...” that judgment, based on hindsight, will be true and final -- and not subject to spin.

August 30, 2004
     The Kerry campaign is missing a huge opportunity:  there are lots of  thinking and moderate Republicans who are very troubled by W’s record and who would vote for Kerry if they were encouraged to do so.  And while it is admittedly difficult to publicly buck the hard-line support by their hard-line Republican friends, who knows what will happen in the privacy of the voting booth. In any event ignoring them -- or treating them as newly minted Democrats if they join up  -- is a turn-off; rather they should be encouraged with their own emails and support groups... But in another mis-step, the Kerry campaign hasn’t offered that alternative...  [Post-Note:  While there now is a "Republicans for Kerry" spot to make a donation on Kerry's Web page... little other efforts are made to reach out to this potentially large group.]
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