Karl Rove's Strategy
for the 2004 Election

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    Karl Rove’s early expertise was direct mail campaigns that (1) targeted the right audience with (2) the right message... “right” in both cases meaning “effective.”  This expertise, along with his almost precinct by precinct knowledge of voting patterns, will be used again in this 2004 presidential campaign... but this time using new computer technology to (1) use consumer and demographic information to identify likely W voters and (2) target them with "tailored" messages... and a KEY is this information will find non-Republican and traditionally non-participating voters...   [Postscript:  as it turns out while the Democrats had 6 million email addresses, the Republicans not only had more than twice as many with 15 million, they had far more information on each person, and thus were able to more effectively mold their message to the recipient.]   

    In addition Rove will focus on people to people contacts in a variety of ways. For example over the last 2 years the NRA (and presumably Bush’s other bases, i.e. anti-abortion, Catholics, and evangelicals) have built incredible databases that can identify all voters who are sympathetic with their causes, including a “score” for each voter on their likelihood of voting and each voter’s hot-button issues....  And these voter databases include so much personal data that is available through credit agencies and public records (e.g. automobile registrations) that it is truly amazing that the NRA makes its members paranoid about the government keeping records of gun ownership while it has collected and used far more information about something far more basic... their politics and vote.  [Postscript:  Rove used his databases to identify 10,000 African-American "teamleaders" who in exchange for VIP treatment including handshakes with the President, supported Republican issues with their communities.  Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman believes this strategy was not only far most cost effective than advertising, but was responsible for doubling Republican support in among African-Americans in Ohio in the 2004 election.] 
    Of course l
ast week and last minute telephone calls also present a real “stealth” danger, particularly since a loophole in the McCain-Feingold bill allows political telephone calls and solicitations with no monetary limits or even reporting requirements... and if Bush is behind or if the race is close, these anonymous calls can become outrageous in misrepresenting the facts... One only has to look at what happened to McCain in South Carolina and New York to see what can happen this time (Click here for examples from 2000)... 
    So what to do?  If they are smart the Kerry campaign will build their own voter databases to identify and target not just their traditional Democrats, but even non-Democrats as well... [Postscript: The Kerry campaign failed to do this but rather focused only on getting their traditional base registered and out to vote]...  and have some “sleepers” in the NRA’s and other databases who, armed with a telephone tape recorder, can record and respond to the most outrageous charges and calls before the voting starts.  But both sides can also “inoculate” their voters by telling them in advance what to expect... and to take the most egregious for what they are... acts of desperation that act to undermine our electoral process and indeed our democracy....
    And finally every campaign consultant has two goals:  first, get voters likely to support your candidate to the polls, and second discourage voters who are likely to vote for your candidate's opponent from voting... (encouraging everyone to vote is for the naive and high school textbooks).  Both tactics will be used, and while “dirty tricks” are just considered “big league” by some Bush consultants (and by some Kerry supporters as well)... they are truly “bush league” since they undermine our democracy in the most fundamental way...

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This page created October 19, 2004; Updated March 20, 2006. Original material and
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