In addition Rove will focus
on people to people
contacts in a variety of ways. For example
over
the last 2 years the NRA (and presumably Bush’s other bases, i.e.
anti-abortion, Catholics, and evangelicals) have built incredible databases that can identify all
voters who are
sympathetic with their causes, including a “score” for each voter on
their likelihood of voting and each voter’s hot-button issues....
And these voter databases include so much
personal data that is available
through
credit agencies and public records (e.g. automobile registrations) that
it is truly amazing that the NRA makes its
members paranoid about the government keeping records of gun
ownership while it has collected and used far more information about
something far more basic... their
politics and vote. [Postscript: Rove used his
databases to identify 10,000 African-American "teamleaders" who in exchange
for VIP treatment including handshakes with the President, supported
Republican issues with their communities. Republican National
Committee chair Ken Mehlman believes this strategy was not only far most
cost effective than advertising, but was responsible for doubling Republican
support in among African-Americans in Ohio in the 2004 election.]
Of course last week and last
minute
telephone calls also present a real “stealth” danger, particularly
since a loophole in the
McCain-Feingold
bill allows political telephone calls and solicitations with no
monetary limits or even reporting requirements...
and if Bush is behind or if the race is
close, these
anonymous calls can become outrageous in
misrepresenting the
facts...
One only has to look at what happened to McCain in South Carolina and
New York to see what can happen this time (Click
here for examples from
2000)...
So what to do? If they
are smart the Kerry campaign will build their own voter databases
to identify and target not just their traditional Democrats, but even
non-Democrats as well... [Postscript: The Kerry
campaign failed to do this but rather focused only on getting their
traditional base registered and out to vote]... and have some “sleepers” in the
NRA’s and
other
databases
who, armed with a telephone tape recorder, can record and respond to
the most outrageous charges and calls before the voting starts. But both
sides can also “inoculate”
their voters by telling them in
advance what to expect... and to take the most egregious for what they are... acts of desperation that
act to undermine our electoral process and indeed our democracy....
And finally every campaign consultant
has two goals: first, get voters likely to support your candidate
to the polls, and second discourage voters who are likely to vote for
your
candidate's opponent from voting... (encouraging everyone to vote is
for the naive
and high school textbooks). Both tactics will be used, and while “dirty tricks” are just
considered “big league” by some Bush consultants (and by some
Kerry supporters as well)... they are truly “bush league” since they undermine
our democracy in the most fundamental way...