GRIDLOCK vs REPUBLICAN CONGRESS & PRESIDENT:  In a recent column David Broder noted that while a Bush presidency would "loosen Gridlock," since Gore has few admirers on the Republican side, any honeymoon "would probably be over before it began."  Broder predicted that the Democrats have almost no chance to win a majority in the Senate or pick up the 6 seats needed to control the House unless Gore beats Bush.  So the alternative to gridlock is a Republican President and a Republican Senate, if not an all-Republican government.   Broder went on to note that while Bush has a record of "getting along with Democratic lawmakers, at least the conservative kind in Austin..., Bush might find himself being tugged to the right" by influential Republican conservative House and Senate committee chairmen and leaders.  He then noted that "wavering independents fret about an assertive Republican Congress and a complaisant Republican president, especially on the abortion issue."  Broder concluded though that recent comments by Bush "strengthens my belief that abortion rights are not high on his agendas."
KEY:  Abortion may well not be high on Bush's personal agenda, but it is critical to a key segment of his supporters -- and just as gun "rights" and the posting of the Ten Commandments in schools are to his other supporters.  And at least 5 factors suggest that GW  Bush will reward these single interest groups:
First, even if the election results were not close, these single issue groups can claim that they made the difference in Bush's primary victories and thus deserve a pay-back.
Second, GW Bush would clearly renege on promises he and/or his surrogates made  if he does not support these single issue agendas.
Third, he made pay-backs to his single issue supporters in Texas.  For example, four month after his election as Governor he supported and signed a law that allowed Texans to carry concealed weapons for the first time in 125 years.  (And he subsequently supported and signed a bill allowing these concealed weapons to be carried into churches, nursing homes and amusement parks, and a bill that prevented legal actions against gun manufacturers.)
Fourth, the most important thing to a politician is to be elected and re-elected, and simply put, he can't be re-elected (or preserve his brother Jeb's chance in the future) if he ignores these single-issue true-believers voters.
And fifth, an all-Republican Congress will not allow Bush to say a more moderate nominee or position is necessary to get a Supreme Court nominee approved, or a piece of legislation passed. Does anyone believe GW Bush would veto any legislation passed by an all-Republican Congress, or that the GOP leadership will not force Bush to honor his promises to these groups?
KEY:  An all-Republican government could be a DOOMSDAY SCENARIO for many issues including Hobie's two main concerns:  common sense HANDGUN CONTROL and CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM.

TAX CUTS:  Bush has astutely bribed many moderate Republicans who should be concerned about his domestic social agenda with significant income tax cuts that will be massive for those in the higher brackets (with between  25-40% going to the top 1%, for an average of $25-50,000 per taxpayer per year!); plus the elimination of the estate tax (which affects at most the top 2%).  [Note, (1) the reason so much would go to the top 1% is because the rich have become much richer, (2) the dirty tax secret is those at the top pay a far lower percent of their income in taxes than do the middle class because the FICA and Medicare only apply to the first $70-80,000, and (3) neither side is willing to grant real tax relief to the middle class because there are so many of us.]
"My secretary pays a greater percent in taxes than I do, and that's not right." Warren Buffet.
Under current law the first $675,000 of an estate's net worth passes tax free, and the exempt amount is scheduled to rise to $1 million by 2006.  Simple estate planning doubles these amounts for married couples, and farmers and small business people can exempt even more now, with another increase in the future.
"Clinton vetoed a bill that would have phased out the federal estate tax over the next 10 years.  There were enough votes for a compromise exempting the 'little rich,' with estates up to $4 million or so.  But Congress wasn't interested.  They wanted to end taxes for the 'big rich' -- saving $105 billion for America's wealthiest people.  GW Bush strongly supports this bill, saying the 'death tax' taxes money that has already been taxed before.  But in fact much of the money in estates hasn't been taxed before because it's capital gains, which are not taxed at death."   Jane Bryant Quinn who after writing a column opposing total repeal got hate mail from people who "write obscenely and don't sign their names.  I rarely get letters of this sort.  But on this issue, the haters turned out, big time.  Some people really shouldn't have money.  It brings out the worst in them."
"Because generations who don't have to work would blow their inheritance.  I believe that.  I'm not kidding you."  GW Bush on how great family fortunes would be broken up without an estate tax.  "In other words, Bush is apparently counting on spoiled rich kids to redistribute income through sheer consumption and waste.  If they give Daddy's money to the Ferrari dealer, he'll re-circulate it through society.  This is an unusual economic and social analysis."  Jonathan Alter, Newsweek 1/17/00
And of course the very wealthy aren't concerned about gun control since they travel in big SUV's from their gated and guarded communities to their private clubs; and if an abortion is needed, they can simply fly to Europe or the Bahamas, just as in the old days; they would never even think about posting the 10 Commandments in their private schools; and they love the present way of financing elections since they can outspend everyone else.

FOREIGN RELATIONS.  In endorsing Bush one newspaper said -- apparently with a straight face -- that "Bush is no stranger to foreign policy issues.  As governor of Texas, Bush presides over a state with 20 million inhabitants and an international border with Mexico."   Columbus Dispatch editorial, 10/22/00
While neither candidate wants to discuss it, the disintegration of the USSR has made the world far more dangerous and complex as terrorists and "rouge nations" have increased access to nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction, and increased capability to get them to their target -- both abroad and at home.  Indeed it is not just conceivable -- but likely -- that in the not too distant future an attack on one of our ships, like the Cole, or on one of our buildings, like the World Trade Center, will be made with small "dirty" nuclear bombs.
KEY:  Simply put, in the debates Bush truthfully said the biggest crises he had faced were comforting citizens after fires and floods, and being a Governor of a state with a border with Mexico isn't enough.
Bush has met leaders from 3 countries:  Mexico, South Africa, and Russia.  Before his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov he told reporters he was looking forward to meeting "Iggy."

SMARTS & EXPERIENCE.  While it is entirely possible that Bush is just as intelligent as Gore (despite his garbled syntax), it is abundantly clear that Gore not only has superior academic (i.e. reading) skills, he simply has been far more interested in, and willing to study much harder on, all the major issues.  And except for Bush's very profitable service with the Texas Rangers (who benefited from a new stadium largely paid for by the taxpayers), GW's business experience was less than impressive... or successful; and while he has served over 5 years as Governor of Texas, that office has very limited powers and directly and indirectly employs very few people (137 total versus 1,300 under the Governor of Arkansas, and 42,000 under the Mayor of Chicago.)
KEY:  Some Bush supporters believe a "less-engaged" politician is an advantage, i.e. as one business executive said, he likes his Congressman because "he does what we tell him to do."  And reportedly both Trent Lott and Tom DeLay snicker at Bush's "compassionate conservatism" talk and can't  wait to send up their legislation.
"The half reason Bush can claim to be 'a uniter not a divider' is that the Democratic Party in Texas is like a Republican Party elsewhere."  Todd Gitlin, Salon

CREDIBILITY:  Neither candidate has much credibility, especially with younger voters who still apply regular BS standards to politicians.  Not only have both candidates ignored the most pressing problem of nuclear proliferation; both have plans to spend a "surplus" that isn't there; and both have failed to prepare the public for the eventual social security reform that can only involve an older age for receiving benefits, lower benefits, and/or stricter eligibility.  Gore has repeatedly demonstrated not only a compulsive need to promise more and claim more, but a compulsive need to enhance an already impressive record --  while Bush's misstatements have been far more substantive, but without the same consequences, probably because he carries such low expectations.
"Well, a lot of folks don't think I can string a sentence together so when I was able to do so, the expectations were so low that all I had to do was say, 'Hi, I'm George W. Bush.'"
Gore looked like the kid in class who is holding up his hand and saying: 'I know the answer.'  Bush looked like the kid who lost his homework."  Charles Loomis, Cols. Dispatch 11/5/00
AND, Jesse Ventura got it right again: "There's no surplus until the debts are paid."

And finally, it appears the Democrat's traditional base will be critically hurt not only by gun-rights, but by the emotional abortion issue as well.
"We see it as really the most important election ever.... the way we look at it, anyone who in any way tries to advance the practice of abortion or protect the availability of abortion is committing a serious sin." Rev. Frank Pavone, national director of the Roman Catholic group Priests for Life.  Although nominally non-partisan, this group raised over $1 million for advertising, contacted every U.S. priest, and sent speakers across the country to talk about the presidential campaign, the church's teachings on abortion, and the responsibilities Catholics have to vote.  Pavone readily admits his personal support for Bush as "a welcome change for pro-life people."  Columbus Dispatch 10/13/00
"The unborn child has a fundamental right to life, which cannot be infringed."  GOP Platform  [Note the use of the word "infringe" which parrots the Second Amendment's right to bear arms.]
GW Bush has said Supreme Court Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas were his "models."
For 20 years the Southern Baptist Convention had supported the 1962 Supreme Court decision to prohibit prayers in school, and in 1971 it even supported the right to an abortion.  The religious right seized control of the SBC in 1979 and by 1988 the television preacher stars had their own influential and profitable spheres.
"The public's approval of a right to early abortion and its disapproval of late-term abortions have considerable intuitive moral appeal....  The best way to minimize the number of late-term abortions would be to make early abortion easier and more private.  And the best way to do that would be to move rapidly toward broad distribution of RU-486." S. Taylor, Legal Times 10/2/00
While abortion is a heartfelt and difficult issue for both sides, there are Three KEYS:  First, morality cannot be legislated; second, while misrepresentations have been manufactured in order to energize anti-abortion (and anti-gun) supporters, there are misrepresentations on the other side of these debates as well; and third, both the gun-rights and anti-abortion lobbies strongly object to any real campaign finance reform.
"Members of Congress seem to be focusing less on getting bills passed than on gaining leverage on opponents in upcoming elections."  S. Weiss, former Hill staffer