2000 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS #1 (November 8, 2000):
 WHAT BUSH AND GORE SHOULD DO NOW
To the ELECT HOBIE HOMEPAGE

"Analysts trying to predict voter patterns... have posited bleakly that Americans will be choosing between the lesser of two evils.  More likely, and bleaker still, they'll be choosing between the lesser of two lies.  If only there was a morning-after pill."  Kathleen Parker 11/7/00
"Make the deals that keep the nation's legislative battle between the 35-yard lines.  Resist the tyranny of the the majority.  If the nation's course is to be changed, it should be eased around gently, not yanked about by a party and an executive all too sure of themselves.... My voting advice:  Go either way for president, and then go the other way for Congress."  William Safire 11/7/00
WOW!  What a night!
And what stunning reversals and surprises!
And thankfully our erroneous prediction of an easy Bush victory wasn't alone....  Although for several weeks the popular media said the polls were "to close to call," we and others relied on quieter reports that both Bush and Gore's private polls were showing Bush safely and surely ahead by 6-10 points; and on Bush's supporters' predictions that they would do far better than the polls because of his "BG" ground troops -- that is, anti-abortion, pro-gun, and religious right voters who would crawl over "Broken Glass" to vote.  Indeed well over a week ago the Bush Campaign was so confident of victory they planned a very elaborate Victory Celebration in Austin; started publicly talking about Cabinet members, transition teams and other positions in their new Administration; and all their schedules referred to GW as "President-Elect" starting today (the day after the election).

But by last weekend it was clear the race had significantly tightened, and by noon yesterday (Tuesday, November 7th) the GOP leaders were "stunned" by the exit polls which showed a far closer race than either side expected -- and one that seemed to defy everyone's expectations in many ways.  For example Pat Caddell, long-time Democratic pollster turned TV pundit, was visibly flustered last night as some exit poll data showed 25% of the voters said Bush's DUI had played some part in their vote.  He incredulously asked "where this came from" since as late as Monday "only 5% said it played a part in their thinking;" and he plaintively wailed that maybe they were asking the wrong  questions, or their polling procedures were flawed....  and he wasn't the only one who was exasperated and confounded...

Instant Analysis Keys:
FIRST
Bush's DUI was not a major concern to most voters since most of us have done dumb things even well past our youth...  and the voters seemed to enjoy the roguish background of both Bush and McCain... and Bush had clearly mended his drinking ways.  However, a major part of Bush's appeal has been his promise to "bring dignity and honor to the White House," which to most voters meant not only that he wouldn't carry-on an affair with a young intern, but that he would be far more honest with the American people than Clinton.  Thus the failure to disclose the DUI was powerful because it suddenly looked "Clintonesque" in several respects:

     ***  It appeared Bush clearly lied when a reporter directly asked him several years earlier if he had ever been arrested (not nearly as bad as lying under oath but...); and his excuse that he "didn't want to hurt his daughters" was basically the same as Clinton's, and simply doesn't wash for a politician.
     ***  But more importantly not disclosing an arrest that was a matter of public record revealed incredibly stupidity (just as having an affair with a very young intern); and it also revealed a Clinton-like arrogance, i.e. it showed both Clinton and Bush believe they shouldn't be held to a higher standard, but rather are entitled to special privileges and special treatment (and a $150 fine for DUI was special).  Simply put, the only reason Bush didn't disclose this arrest was because, like Clinton, he felt he could get away it.... dumb, dumb, dumb..... and equally dumb!

SECOND

In many respects the election not only vindicated McCain -- many now believe he could have won in a cakewalk -- it showed he had raised the bar as well as our hopes -- that politics could be different... and noble... and in doing so he made the other candidates seem even more mendacious, self-serving, and shallow...

THIRD
It appears young people voted in record numbers... perhaps in response to slogans like MTV's  "Piss off a politician:  Vote!"  And as noted below, this has profound implications for the future....

FOURTH

Numerous races showed that money doesn't guarantee victory; that too many ads and too many calls become ineffective; and that negative ads can indeed be counter-productive... A prime example was an Ohio Supreme Court race where many Republicans voted for a Democratic candidate to express their disgust that the state Chamber of Commerce and Governor tried to help the otherwise worthy Republican opponent by raising millions of dollars from donors they refused to disclose for a barrage of negative ads...

FIFTH

And finally, the election dramatically reveals other flaws in our present system, from the power of the free-spending special interests and single-issue advocates over the Parties by , and thus over the primaries, and thus over the nominees, to the Electoral College.... So...

WHAT SHOULD BUSH AND GORE DO NOW?

The Problem:  Particularly since Gore appears to have won the popular vote, the Florida recount and any protests that could affect the outcome must proceed...  even if it takes several more days, or even a couple of more weeks..... What's the hurry?  Certainly it's far better to take some time to do it right than to disenfranchise and upset the  majority who voted for Gore....  However, once either Bush or Gore are declared the winner, our foreign allies and foes must be assured that the president-elect has the support of the Congress and the people... thus The Ideal:  the loser must legitimize the winner... and in return the winner must not only be humble and recognize the election didn't give him a mandate for change, but rather a mandate to be a "caretaker" and consensus builder... and it is imperative the winner reaches out to the loser and his supporters, and even offer the loser some sort of role ("We have agreed to meet privately once every other week to discuss how we can work together for the good of the country")... and ideally Bush and Gore would issue a joint press release, and have a joint press conference, where they symbolically hold hands and say:
"This election is not just unprecedented in our lifetimes, but truly historic... and it demands an unprecedented and historic response.... Each side fought hard and tried hard to focused on the important issues of our time, but in the end there was no mandate for either of us, our parties, or any issue.  Instead the results sent a powerful message all of us in public office:  deliberately choosing  gridlock simply means the voters don't trust us... our negative, partisan pursuits and half-truths have alienated the American people...  So today we pledge that while we will not discard our debate over our differences, we recognize that the American public desperately wants some co-operation and truth telling, and we will start to do so today:

First, while the election shows that the country remains divided over a few important and emotional issues, there are many more important issues on which we can agree... and we pledge to concentrate on those issues with common sense and and straight talk.

Secondly, this campaign has dramatically illustrated the need for real campaign finance reform... simply put 2 years and $3 billion is way too much time and way too much money spent in way too wasteful and counter-productive ways to decide who should be elected....  And as the campaign ads showed, the problem isn't free speech because the ads certainly were not free, and they often were not speech...  but rather propaganda designed to misinform rather than inform.....   And while it is hard to admit, we know that many of the voters also feel the two-party system, and primary process are flawed -- and that neither of us is the best candidate our country has to offer....

Third, Jesse Ventura was right when he said that there is no surplus until all the debts are paid...

Fourth, the Pentagon will spend $310 billion this year -- more than the world's 12 next largest militaries combined -- and more than half the budget of the US excluding benefits like Medicare and Social Security.   And the main reason it is so large is because putting jobs in politicians' districts is often more important than building effective weapons --  and more important than paying our troops a decent wage....  We can and must spend these dollars much more wisely, and know that every dollar saved can be used for our real security:  an educated and healthy population.

Fifth, while we will make sure our armed forces are second to none, our national security depends less on weapons than on international co-operation to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

And sixth, looming on the horizon are demographic changes that will profound affect all of us...   All polls show young people don't believe social security will be there for them when they retire... but the reality is once they start voting in numbers, the reverse will likely be true... that is, social security won't be there for us baby boomers.... those younger voters will say it isn't fair that it will take two of them to support each retiree while we had 4 to 6 to do so, and that there was plenty of warning of what was going to happen, but rather than taking reasonable steps to reform the system, we allowed our politicians to waste money on useless weapons and projects....  And a final truth for today: Politicians can promise to preserve social security all they want, but since it is a pay-as-you-go system, the post-baby boomer generation will be stuck with the bill, and they will decide how much of it to pay  -- and the politicians not only don't pay into social security, their retirement plan is enormously better than social security, and their medical plan is enormously better than medicare....

Both of us individually, and all of us as a country, are faced with two stark choices:  we can stay with "politics as usual" and seek to advance our different agendas -- and start preparing today to gain an advantage for our party in the next election...  or we can listen to the great majority who want us to speak truly and act wisely, and in doing so try to earn back your trust.....  Today we choose the latter -- and thank you voters for the wake-up call....

Truly a fable for our times... Certainly Bush's talking about his transition plans before the official recount is finished is troubling, evincing an arrogance and disregard of the majority who voted for Gore... (Indeed it seems Bush may just be following the heavy-handed plans that were made when it was assumed he would have a mandate)... and the other side will of course respond in kind ... and we the people will be ill served, until the next time, when our voices will be louder, and our cause more passionate, and true leaders emerge....
[Updates will be posted as new information is available -- and as Hobie and the other
pundits recover from their all-nighter on Tuesday... and change their minds...]
 2000 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS #2 11/11/00:
If the Politicians Don't Know What to Do, We'll Tell Them
Or Back to the ELECT HOBIE HOMEPAGE

Page prepared 11/8/00, Updated 11/11/00
Original material only copyright 2000; other material copyright by holders;
see the Elect Hobie Homepage; Non-Commercial distribution encouraged with attribution.