"Analysts trying to predict voter
patterns...
have posited bleakly that Americans will be choosing between the lesser
of two evils. More likely, and bleaker still, they'll be choosing
between the lesser of two lies. If only there was a morning-after
pill." Kathleen Parker 11/7/00
"Make the deals that keep the nation's
legislative
battle between the 35-yard lines. Resist the tyranny of the the
majority.
If the nation's course is to be changed, it should be eased around
gently,
not yanked about by a party and an executive all too sure of
themselves....
My voting advice: Go either way for president, and then go the
other
way for Congress." William Safire 11/7/00
WOW! What a night!
And what stunning reversals
and surprises!
And thankfully our erroneous
prediction of an
easy Bush victory wasn't alone.... Although for several weeks the
popular media said the polls were "to close to call," we and others
relied
on quieter reports that both Bush and Gore's private polls were showing
Bush safely and surely ahead by 6-10 points; and on Bush's supporters'
predictions that they would do far better than the polls because of his
"BG" ground troops -- that is, anti-abortion, pro-gun, and religious
right
voters who would crawl over "Broken Glass" to vote. Indeed well
over
a week ago the Bush Campaign was so confident of victory they planned a
very elaborate Victory Celebration in Austin; started publicly talking
about Cabinet members, transition teams and other positions in their
new
Administration; and all their schedules referred to GW as
"President-Elect"
starting today (the day after the election).
Instant Analysis Keys:
FIRST
Bush's DUI was not a major concern
to most
voters
since most of us have done dumb things even well past our
youth...
and the voters seemed to enjoy the roguish background of both Bush and
McCain... and Bush had clearly mended his drinking ways. However,
a major
part of Bush's appeal has been his promise to "bring dignity and honor
to the White House," which to most voters meant not only that he
wouldn't
carry-on an affair with a young intern, but that he would be far more
honest
with the American people than Clinton. Thus the failure to
disclose
the DUI was powerful because it suddenly looked "Clintonesque" in
several
respects:
SECOND
THIRD
It appears
young people voted in record numbers... perhaps in
response
to slogans like MTV's "Piss off a politician: Vote!"
And as noted below, this has profound implications for the
future....
FOURTH
FIFTH
WHAT SHOULD BUSH AND GORE DO NOW?
"This election is not just unprecedented in our lifetimes, but truly historic... and it demands an unprecedented and historic response.... Each side fought hard and tried hard to focused on the important issues of our time, but in the end there was no mandate for either of us, our parties, or any issue. Instead the results sent a powerful message all of us in public office: deliberately choosing gridlock simply means the voters don't trust us... our negative, partisan pursuits and half-truths have alienated the American people... So today we pledge that while we will not discard our debate over our differences, we recognize that the American public desperately wants some co-operation and truth telling, and we will start to do so today:Truly a fable for our times... Certainly Bush's talking about his transition plans before the official recount is finished is troubling, evincing an arrogance and disregard of the majority who voted for Gore... (Indeed it seems Bush may just be following the heavy-handed plans that were made when it was assumed he would have a mandate)... and the other side will of course respond in kind ... and we the people will be ill served, until the next time, when our voices will be louder, and our cause more passionate, and true leaders emerge....First, while the election shows that the country remains divided over a few important and emotional issues, there are many more important issues on which we can agree... and we pledge to concentrate on those issues with common sense and and straight talk.
Secondly, this campaign has dramatically illustrated the need for real campaign finance reform... simply put 2 years and $3 billion is way too much time and way too much money spent in way too wasteful and counter-productive ways to decide who should be elected.... And as the campaign ads showed, the problem isn't free speech because the ads certainly were not free, and they often were not speech... but rather propaganda designed to misinform rather than inform..... And while it is hard to admit, we know that many of the voters also feel the two-party system, and primary process are flawed -- and that neither of us is the best candidate our country has to offer....
Third, Jesse Ventura was right when he said that there is no surplus until all the debts are paid...
Fourth, the Pentagon will spend $310 billion this year -- more than the world's 12 next largest militaries combined -- and more than half the budget of the US excluding benefits like Medicare and Social Security. And the main reason it is so large is because putting jobs in politicians' districts is often more important than building effective weapons -- and more important than paying our troops a decent wage.... We can and must spend these dollars much more wisely, and know that every dollar saved can be used for our real security: an educated and healthy population.
Fifth, while we will make sure our armed forces are second to none, our national security depends less on weapons than on international co-operation to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
And sixth, looming on the horizon are demographic changes that will profound affect all of us... All polls show young people don't believe social security will be there for them when they retire... but the reality is once they start voting in numbers, the reverse will likely be true... that is, social security won't be there for us baby boomers.... those younger voters will say it isn't fair that it will take two of them to support each retiree while we had 4 to 6 to do so, and that there was plenty of warning of what was going to happen, but rather than taking reasonable steps to reform the system, we allowed our politicians to waste money on useless weapons and projects.... And a final truth for today: Politicians can promise to preserve social security all they want, but since it is a pay-as-you-go system, the post-baby boomer generation will be stuck with the bill, and they will decide how much of it to pay -- and the politicians not only don't pay into social security, their retirement plan is enormously better than social security, and their medical plan is enormously better than medicare....
Both of us individually, and all of us as a country, are faced with two stark choices: we can stay with "politics as usual" and seek to advance our different agendas -- and start preparing today to gain an advantage for our party in the next election... or we can listen to the great majority who want us to speak truly and act wisely, and in doing so try to earn back your trust..... Today we choose the latter -- and thank you voters for the wake-up call....